The thing is, maybe within a conference or small (in terms of number of programs) state you could make that work, but I don't know how you'd incorporate head-to-head in what's effectively a national ranking (conference and state rankings here are simply filtered from national rankings). There's so little head-to-head that statistically it's almost meaningless. Those comparatively few situations could, though, introduce a huge bias into all the data, making differences appear larger than they really are.Laxgramps wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 9:45 pmYes but when one team beats the other head to head, has a better record and has the same strength of schedule it makes no sense that that team is ranked below the team it beat. All I’m saying is that there should be something added to the ranking algorithm to take this into account. Chaminade beat St. Anthony’s 13-7 and is undefeated. They should NEVER be ranked below St. Anthony’s.
To your point, looking at the data this morning (last roll-up was 3:54 AM this morning) SoS is not the same... St. Anthony's is almost 1.5 points above Chaminade. Chaminade's AGD is one higher than St. Anthony's, so the net difference is St. Anthony's being 0.5 points above Chaminade, at least as of this morning. But because of the goal differential cap, Chaminade doesn't get as much credit for the larger wins they have. That's why they're behind at this point. If you take into account those larger wins, Chaminade's AGD would be 1.5 points higher than St. Anthony's. If you remove the cap and re-roll all the data, I'll bet Chaminade comes out on top, or at the very least it's much closer than 0.5 point.
Look, you can probably find these kinds of things all over the rankings at this point. I doubt they were able to bring the data with them from LaxPower, so even if the algorithms are the same the data is all new and there's not that much of it - they effectively started from scratch. It will take more data and greater participation to sort this kind of ripple out.
If you study the math and statistics behind sports rating systems, you find that head-to-head, when it's included, is mostly used simply to make the public feel better about the ranking. It actually makes it a less reliable statistical measure of relative quality since the better team does not always win... home/away, time in the season, and other factors can affect who wins a particular game. And it gets to be even less reliable the larger the data set (number of teams/participants) is.