NCAA and MCLA Selection Tournament Predictions

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laxvegas
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Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:55 pm

NCAA and MCLA Selection Tournament Predictions

Post by laxvegas » Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:06 pm

Laxnumbers.com (laxybytes.com) has developed computer programs that computerize the NCAA Selection Criteria for Men’s D1, D2 and D3 and Women’s D1 and predicts the at-large and auto-qualifying (aq) probabilities for teams vying for a place in their respective NCAA/MCLA Championship tournaments. For the MCLA Men's Division 1 and 2, the system employs NCAA D1 criteria. The way the system works is: (1) compute the RPI, SOS, W-L, Quality Wins and Losses and other parameters that make up the primary and secondary criteria of each division; (2) apply a formula to determine the aq and at-large rankings from best to worst; (3) convert the results into team probabilities of receiving a bid. Finally an interactive program (laxinteractive.com) allows a user to designate the win-loss outcome of future games and the program re-computes steps (1), (2) and (3) in a second or two to determine if a team is 'in', 'out' or what needs to happen for a team to make the 'dance.' Laxinteractive.com applies only to MD-1, WD-1 and MCLA-1.


So like the healthy protein bar that employs only real ingredients to produce a meaningful result, we offer the best lacrosse ‘food for thought’ when it comes to predicting which teams make the tournament. We adhere strictly to the selection criteria and numerical evaluations and leave the ‘empty calorie’ guessing to others. Our accuracy over the past few years proves it!

www.laxbytes.com (soon to be www.laxnumbers.com) and www.laxinteractive.com

Probability Accuracy
When evaluating the worthiness of this tool, the formulas used are only credible if the results closely predict the results of the selection committee. The computer methods have been used for some divisions for six years and for others only recently. Overall, the prediction rate is approximately 90%. However, even when the predictions are wrong, the team that does receive an invitation is always next in line. For Men’s Division I, the results for the past 6 years was 46 out of 48 or 95%. Four of the past six years the results were 8 for 8 and for the other two of the past years, the results were 7 out of 8. For Men’s Division II, Last year’s predictions were 8 out of 8 or 100% and the past three years predictions were 22 out of 24 or 91.6%, For Men’s Division III, last years predictions were 17 out of 19 at-large or 89.5% . For Women’s Division I, last year’s accuracy was 13 out of 13 or 100% and predictions for the past three years was 35 out of 39 or 89.7% . This is the first year we are doing MCLA Division I and II.

www.laxbytes.com (soon to be www.laxnumbers.com) and www.laxinteractive.com


What will it take for a team to make the tournament ? or ‘What If?’ the team wins or loses its remaining games.
LaxNumbers/Laxbytes has developed an interactive tool called ‘laxinteractive’ (laxinteractive.com) that not only calculates the current probabilities of receiving an at large invitation but also allows one to look into the future by projecting the outcome of un-played games by simply designating those games to be won or lost. In fact, you can simply click on ‘Win All’ or ‘Lose All’ to all the remaining games and determine the very best or worst outcome for a particular team. As every game is predicted in the win or loss column, the criteria for all teams is recalculated (RPI, SOS, W-L, Quality Wins, etc.) and the ‘new’ at large probabilities are updated. The computer interface is simple and the updates occur within a second or two.

www.laxbytes.com (soon to be www.laxnumbers.com) and

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